Exclusive: Intelligence Report Says Ayatollah Khamenei Has a Contingency Plan to Flee to Moscow if Unrest in Iran Escalates

Tehran / London — A Western intelligence assessment obtained by The Times of London reveals that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has devised a secret contingency plan to flee Tehran for Moscow if nationwide protests intensify and the regime’s security forces fail to suppress the unrest. (ایران اینترنشنال | Iran International)

According to the intelligence report, the 86-year-old ayatollah has prepared an emergency “Plan B” that would be activated if Iran’s army, Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij militia, police or other security units begin to desert, disobey orders or are unable to contain the protests. In that event, Khamenei would depart the Iranian capital with a close circle of up to around 20 people, including family members and senior aides. (ایران اینترنشنال | Iran International)

Moscow as the Likely Destination

Intelligence sources cited by The Times and other news agencies say Moscow has been identified as Khamenei’s most viable safe haven, partly because of the political alignment between Tehran and the Kremlin, and reportedly due to Khamenei’s personal rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (ایران اینترنشنال | Iran International)

The scenario reportedly draws from the precedent of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s departure to Moscow in late 2024, when opposition forces closed in on Damascus. (NewsBytes)

Trigger Conditions and Planning

Sources say the plan would be triggered if Tehran’s security apparatus shows signs of fragmentation or major defections — a prospect that intelligence officials view as plausible given widespread protests across Iranian cities. The unrest, initially sparked by severe economic hardship, rising inflation, and a deepening currency crisis, has rapidly evolved into broader demands for political change and expanded beyond major urban centers. (Wikipedia)

The intelligence files indicate that escape routes and logistical arrangements have already been mapped, including efforts to secure access to cash, foreign assets, and properties that could facilitate a rapid exit from the country. (ynetglobal)

Khamenei’s Inner Circle and Succession Concerns

The report highlights that several trusted aides and relatives of Khamenei already have family members living abroad, which could support relocation plans in a crisis. Among those mentioned is his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, widely viewed as a potential successor within the clerical establishment. (ynetglobal)

Context of Unrest

The intelligence assessment comes amid ongoing nationwide protests — the most significant outburst of domestic dissent Iran has seen in recent years. Demonstrators have confronted a combination of economic collapse, inflation, and frustration with political repression, with hundreds of arrests and several deaths reported in clashes with security forces. (Reuters)

Iran’s authorities have responded with a mix of force and cautious engagement, while Supreme Leader Khamenei has maintained a low public profile in recent weeks. (Wikipedia)

International Reactions

The report has already drawn global attention. Regional outlets reflect a mix of concern and skepticism about the report’s details, with some analysts emphasizing that such contingency planning is a standard part of regime risk assessments, while others assert it reflects deepening vulnerabilities within Iran’s leadership. (i24 News)